General
As a result of Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in a gun and bomb attack on 27 Dec 2007, the government postponed the elections from 8 January to 18 February 2008. The election to the national parliament and the provincial assemblies has been marred by pre-election violence and controversies. More than 400 people have been killed in violence this year. People doubt whether these polls will truly be free, fair and transparent. There is trouble ahead with both the PPP and PML promising mass unrest if the election results fail to meet opposition expectations, even as Musharraf cautions against street protest. Musharraf says that in Pakistan's elections the loser always cries foul.
Fair and free elections and a smooth transfer of power will help integrate the fractured nation and help isolate militants from the mainstream.
The Election Scenario
The law and order situation, one thing a long-serving head of the army should have got right, has gone from bad to worse. Asif Ali Zardari, the acting Chairman of Pakistan People’s Party, has been dogged by accusations of corruption for so long that he is seen as a liability by many. Pakistanis have not forgotten that ‘Mr 10 percent’ faces corruption charges in Pakistan, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Such feelings are echoing around Punjab, Pakistan's biggest province and most important as far as the elections are concerned.
The insurgency in Balochistan has revived, Swat Valley and FATA are virtually controlled by Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taleban. The elections have been banned by the militants engaging the Army in NWFP and fears of violence during the elections is likely to intimidate the voters; not a conducive environment for holding elections of any kind.
Issues
Flour prices have sky rocketed and the country is facing tremendous gas shortages.
The people are disillusioned with military rule and demanding restoration of democracy.
Law and order situation has worsened.
Fundamentalism and religious extremism have raised their ugly head.
Manifestos
PPP Manifesto - Employment, energy, education, environment and equality.
PML-N's Manifesto - Restoration of judiciary, democracy and the 1973 constitution, the elimination of military's rule over politics, security of life and property, tolerance, overall reconciliation, relief for the poor, and education and employment.
PML-Q-MQM Alliance Manifesto - Democracy, development, defence, devolution and diversity.
Sympathy vote
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 Dec 07 will definitely weigh in favor of her PPP; particularly in Sindh, her home Province. Sympathy factor is also likely to fetch votes for the Party and improve its chances at the hustings.
Monitors
Monday's election, which was scrutinised by a 130-strong European Union team, the largest international observer mission in the country, was closely watched by the world.
Conduct
Although the elections were by and large peaceful they were nevertheless overshadowed by violence and fears of rigging. The security measures were effective in most parts of Pakistan. There were a few incidents to mar the otherwise state of normalcy. 47 people were killed at a rally on Saturday in the town of Parachinar, near the border with Afghanistan. On Sunday, four soldiers were killed when their vehicle hit an explosive device in Baluchistan province.
Fear of militant attacks and apathy after a lackluster campaign appeared to keep turnout low. The widespread anti-incumbent mood was prominently in evidence. Although Polling at some booths began late after the agents arrived, happily there has been no evidence of rigging.
Likely Results
There’s a powerful factor against Mr Musharraf at play in the campaign - the shocking assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 December. This election is expected to deliver not just the solid vote bank of her Pakistan People's Party, but a wave of sympathy that's hard to quantify. PPP is expected to sweep its traditional power base of rural Sindh. If the people turnout is large, PPP and PML-N are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.
If the results don't deliver a resounding victory to the Pakistan People's Party and gains for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, street protests, violence and turmoil are certain to dog Pakistan in the aftermath of elections.
Post elections, if the PPP then joins forces with pro-Musharraf parties, there may be a backlash within its rank and file, which blames the president for Benazir Bhutto's murder. If it forms an alliance with Mr Sheriff’s party there could be confrontation with the presidency. Either ways, managing post election scene is going to be more difficult for the Party than the election itself. The arrow, PPP’s election symbol, may miss the mark.
Analysis
National and provincial elections in Pakistan are meant to be a key step in a tortuous process of moving Pakistan from military to civilian rule. The current elections are essentially a referendum on nearly nine years of rule of President Pervez Musharraf.
Musharraf is not actually contesting, but his popularity will be manifested in votes cast for the party that backs him - the Pakistan Muslim League (PML- Q), known as the "King's Party". Over the years his popularity has plummeted. The PML-Q has suffered in the anti-Musharraf backlash.
However, no matter how bad the situation in Pakistan seems right now, and no matter which party gains the people’s mandate, the country will continue to be ruled by military-ISI combine. If an understanding is reached with the political establishment, the Army and the ISI will resort to back seat driving. In both the scenarios, the Islamists will be the winners.
Conclusion
At a testing time for Pakistan, its politicians are busy reminding the people of their individual worth to the country. Asif Ali Zardari, Mr 10 %, has been talking about the Bhutto legacy. Both Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz never tire of bragging about the sacrifices by their family. People seem to have already resigned their fate to the feudal lords.
The deciding factor, as always in Pakistan, will be the army. General Ashfaq Kiyani has made it clear that the interests of his institution are now distinct from Musharraf's own political ambitions. If Kiyani distances himself from Musharraf, he will be continuing a long and fundamentally undisturbed tradition that sets the army, rather than the electorate, as the ultimate kingmaker in Pakistan.
The deeply felt grievances of the people, emergence of Pakistani Taliban, a bitterly fractious polity and refusal of the Army-ISI combine to loosen its hold on power and usher in a genuine democracy could implode Pakistan.
As a result of Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in a gun and bomb attack on 27 Dec 2007, the government postponed the elections from 8 January to 18 February 2008. The election to the national parliament and the provincial assemblies has been marred by pre-election violence and controversies. More than 400 people have been killed in violence this year. People doubt whether these polls will truly be free, fair and transparent. There is trouble ahead with both the PPP and PML promising mass unrest if the election results fail to meet opposition expectations, even as Musharraf cautions against street protest. Musharraf says that in Pakistan's elections the loser always cries foul.
Fair and free elections and a smooth transfer of power will help integrate the fractured nation and help isolate militants from the mainstream.
The Election Scenario
The law and order situation, one thing a long-serving head of the army should have got right, has gone from bad to worse. Asif Ali Zardari, the acting Chairman of Pakistan People’s Party, has been dogged by accusations of corruption for so long that he is seen as a liability by many. Pakistanis have not forgotten that ‘Mr 10 percent’ faces corruption charges in Pakistan, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Such feelings are echoing around Punjab, Pakistan's biggest province and most important as far as the elections are concerned.
The insurgency in Balochistan has revived, Swat Valley and FATA are virtually controlled by Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taleban. The elections have been banned by the militants engaging the Army in NWFP and fears of violence during the elections is likely to intimidate the voters; not a conducive environment for holding elections of any kind.
Issues
Flour prices have sky rocketed and the country is facing tremendous gas shortages.
The people are disillusioned with military rule and demanding restoration of democracy.
Law and order situation has worsened.
Fundamentalism and religious extremism have raised their ugly head.
Manifestos
PPP Manifesto - Employment, energy, education, environment and equality.
PML-N's Manifesto - Restoration of judiciary, democracy and the 1973 constitution, the elimination of military's rule over politics, security of life and property, tolerance, overall reconciliation, relief for the poor, and education and employment.
PML-Q-MQM Alliance Manifesto - Democracy, development, defence, devolution and diversity.
Sympathy vote
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 Dec 07 will definitely weigh in favor of her PPP; particularly in Sindh, her home Province. Sympathy factor is also likely to fetch votes for the Party and improve its chances at the hustings.
Monitors
Monday's election, which was scrutinised by a 130-strong European Union team, the largest international observer mission in the country, was closely watched by the world.
Conduct
Although the elections were by and large peaceful they were nevertheless overshadowed by violence and fears of rigging. The security measures were effective in most parts of Pakistan. There were a few incidents to mar the otherwise state of normalcy. 47 people were killed at a rally on Saturday in the town of Parachinar, near the border with Afghanistan. On Sunday, four soldiers were killed when their vehicle hit an explosive device in Baluchistan province.
Fear of militant attacks and apathy after a lackluster campaign appeared to keep turnout low. The widespread anti-incumbent mood was prominently in evidence. Although Polling at some booths began late after the agents arrived, happily there has been no evidence of rigging.
Likely Results
There’s a powerful factor against Mr Musharraf at play in the campaign - the shocking assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27 December. This election is expected to deliver not just the solid vote bank of her Pakistan People's Party, but a wave of sympathy that's hard to quantify. PPP is expected to sweep its traditional power base of rural Sindh. If the people turnout is large, PPP and PML-N are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.
If the results don't deliver a resounding victory to the Pakistan People's Party and gains for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, street protests, violence and turmoil are certain to dog Pakistan in the aftermath of elections.
Post elections, if the PPP then joins forces with pro-Musharraf parties, there may be a backlash within its rank and file, which blames the president for Benazir Bhutto's murder. If it forms an alliance with Mr Sheriff’s party there could be confrontation with the presidency. Either ways, managing post election scene is going to be more difficult for the Party than the election itself. The arrow, PPP’s election symbol, may miss the mark.
Analysis
National and provincial elections in Pakistan are meant to be a key step in a tortuous process of moving Pakistan from military to civilian rule. The current elections are essentially a referendum on nearly nine years of rule of President Pervez Musharraf.
Musharraf is not actually contesting, but his popularity will be manifested in votes cast for the party that backs him - the Pakistan Muslim League (PML- Q), known as the "King's Party". Over the years his popularity has plummeted. The PML-Q has suffered in the anti-Musharraf backlash.
However, no matter how bad the situation in Pakistan seems right now, and no matter which party gains the people’s mandate, the country will continue to be ruled by military-ISI combine. If an understanding is reached with the political establishment, the Army and the ISI will resort to back seat driving. In both the scenarios, the Islamists will be the winners.
Conclusion
At a testing time for Pakistan, its politicians are busy reminding the people of their individual worth to the country. Asif Ali Zardari, Mr 10 %, has been talking about the Bhutto legacy. Both Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz never tire of bragging about the sacrifices by their family. People seem to have already resigned their fate to the feudal lords.
The deciding factor, as always in Pakistan, will be the army. General Ashfaq Kiyani has made it clear that the interests of his institution are now distinct from Musharraf's own political ambitions. If Kiyani distances himself from Musharraf, he will be continuing a long and fundamentally undisturbed tradition that sets the army, rather than the electorate, as the ultimate kingmaker in Pakistan.
The deeply felt grievances of the people, emergence of Pakistani Taliban, a bitterly fractious polity and refusal of the Army-ISI combine to loosen its hold on power and usher in a genuine democracy could implode Pakistan.
1 comment:
here is wishing the country all the best.
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