http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7162445.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7162445.stm
The Background
In the past few years, the militants have carved out sanctuaries in the tribal belt along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. There has also been a low-intensity, armed nationalist insurgency in Pakistan's largest province, Balochistan. In political terms, the nation is divided as never before, with an array of disparate power centres including the military, the political parties and the militant groups. Bhutto’s assassination is a further setback for the US "war on terror", which has as part of its strategy in the region the restoration of democracy in Pakistan to offer an alternative path, away from militancy and extremism.
The strategy is very much at risk. The hope was that politics would be resumed and that the confrontation between the army and Islamic militants would gradually be wound down. An end to such conflict is vital not only for the future stability of Pakistan but for the future of Afghanistan. It is from Pakistan that the Taleban are able to conduct their war against the Afghan government and its NATO supporters.
The only recent political advances have been made by the Pakistani Taleban, who have seized large chunks of territory.
Impact
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) riot against the government is likely to fuel the anti-Musharaff movement of the country's lawyers and civil campaigners who insist his removal from power as a pre-condition for the restoration of democracy. Ms Bhutto, with her huge grassroots political support, played a vital role in keeping this line of thinking in check. Fingers are already being pointed at the administration for failing to prevent the assassination in the high-security garrison town of Rawalpindi. The president's credibility is at risk because the largest opposition party has been thrown into disarray so close to the elections, creating a void in the system.
The re-imposition of a state of emergency, which was lifted under pressure from the opposition and the Western powers, may be an option. But by so doing, President Musharaff would risk increasing opposition to his rule. Besides, it is not certain that the army would be willing to back such a move at this stage.
There is a widespread perception that elements within Musharaff’s administration have helped militants secure safe havens in Pakistan with a view to destabilising Afghanistan. Politically, his closest allies have, without exception, been elements sympathetic to the militants and their mission. His crackdown last month on Pakistan's fledgling civil society was unacceptable to large segment of the population who saw lawyers, journalists and women being hauled off to jail. No Islamist fundamentalists were rounded up when he declared a state of emergency on 3 November 2007. No significant politician or party looks prepared to face up to the threat posed by Islamist extremism and the Pakistani Taleban who today are the main threat to the state.
Stocks worldwide plummeted, while oil prices rose to their highest in a month after the assassination concerned about a less stable geopolitical environment. Mounting geopolitical risks would further boost oil prices. But as Pakistan is not a country with developed financial markets and the country's connection with global credit markets is minimal. It would have a limited and short-term impact on markets.
There are concerns that the economy of Pakistan could be unsettled by the assassination, and that the problems may spread to other nations.
President Musharaff may not survive the fallout of Ms Bhutto's death.
Options / Likely Outcome
The killing of Benazir Bhutto will probably lead to the cancellation of national and provincial elections on 8 January 2008. PPP stalwarts have accused the military of perpetrating the latest murder of a Bhutto - although that is extremely unlikely. The classic use of a sniper and a suicide bomb attack to cut her down bore all the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda trained Pakistani suicide squad. Although the suspicion is not totally out of place. When Ms Bhutto had returned to Pakistan on 18 Oct 07, the attempt on her life raised questions of complicity of the ISI and thereby, the government of Pakistan. The electronic jammers having failed to prevent detonation of the improvised explosive device, the penetration of hostile elements through the four security rings around Ms Bhutto’s motorcade and the use of C4 explosives in the blast were clear pointers to the hand behind the assassination attempt.
Earlier this year she and President Pervez Musharaff had negotiated a plan to work together with the army to curb the threat of extremism that Pakistan now faces. However, her commitment to afford the IAEA access to AQ Khan for interrogation may have finally sealed her fate. The army has never been impartial and appeared all set to try to rig the elections against her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). She had confronted the Taleban extremists head on.
. Ms Bhutto had the political base to conduct a war against extremists. The PPP is the closest the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has ever got to espousing a secular, democratic political culture.
Pakistan is clearly turning into one of the failed states in Asia. The risks of Pakistan imploding have once again increased
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7162445.stm
The Background
In the past few years, the militants have carved out sanctuaries in the tribal belt along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan. There has also been a low-intensity, armed nationalist insurgency in Pakistan's largest province, Balochistan. In political terms, the nation is divided as never before, with an array of disparate power centres including the military, the political parties and the militant groups. Bhutto’s assassination is a further setback for the US "war on terror", which has as part of its strategy in the region the restoration of democracy in Pakistan to offer an alternative path, away from militancy and extremism.
The strategy is very much at risk. The hope was that politics would be resumed and that the confrontation between the army and Islamic militants would gradually be wound down. An end to such conflict is vital not only for the future stability of Pakistan but for the future of Afghanistan. It is from Pakistan that the Taleban are able to conduct their war against the Afghan government and its NATO supporters.
The only recent political advances have been made by the Pakistani Taleban, who have seized large chunks of territory.
Impact
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) riot against the government is likely to fuel the anti-Musharaff movement of the country's lawyers and civil campaigners who insist his removal from power as a pre-condition for the restoration of democracy. Ms Bhutto, with her huge grassroots political support, played a vital role in keeping this line of thinking in check. Fingers are already being pointed at the administration for failing to prevent the assassination in the high-security garrison town of Rawalpindi. The president's credibility is at risk because the largest opposition party has been thrown into disarray so close to the elections, creating a void in the system.
The re-imposition of a state of emergency, which was lifted under pressure from the opposition and the Western powers, may be an option. But by so doing, President Musharaff would risk increasing opposition to his rule. Besides, it is not certain that the army would be willing to back such a move at this stage.
There is a widespread perception that elements within Musharaff’s administration have helped militants secure safe havens in Pakistan with a view to destabilising Afghanistan. Politically, his closest allies have, without exception, been elements sympathetic to the militants and their mission. His crackdown last month on Pakistan's fledgling civil society was unacceptable to large segment of the population who saw lawyers, journalists and women being hauled off to jail. No Islamist fundamentalists were rounded up when he declared a state of emergency on 3 November 2007. No significant politician or party looks prepared to face up to the threat posed by Islamist extremism and the Pakistani Taleban who today are the main threat to the state.
Stocks worldwide plummeted, while oil prices rose to their highest in a month after the assassination concerned about a less stable geopolitical environment. Mounting geopolitical risks would further boost oil prices. But as Pakistan is not a country with developed financial markets and the country's connection with global credit markets is minimal. It would have a limited and short-term impact on markets.
There are concerns that the economy of Pakistan could be unsettled by the assassination, and that the problems may spread to other nations.
President Musharaff may not survive the fallout of Ms Bhutto's death.
Options / Likely Outcome
The killing of Benazir Bhutto will probably lead to the cancellation of national and provincial elections on 8 January 2008. PPP stalwarts have accused the military of perpetrating the latest murder of a Bhutto - although that is extremely unlikely. The classic use of a sniper and a suicide bomb attack to cut her down bore all the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda trained Pakistani suicide squad. Although the suspicion is not totally out of place. When Ms Bhutto had returned to Pakistan on 18 Oct 07, the attempt on her life raised questions of complicity of the ISI and thereby, the government of Pakistan. The electronic jammers having failed to prevent detonation of the improvised explosive device, the penetration of hostile elements through the four security rings around Ms Bhutto’s motorcade and the use of C4 explosives in the blast were clear pointers to the hand behind the assassination attempt.
Earlier this year she and President Pervez Musharaff had negotiated a plan to work together with the army to curb the threat of extremism that Pakistan now faces. However, her commitment to afford the IAEA access to AQ Khan for interrogation may have finally sealed her fate. The army has never been impartial and appeared all set to try to rig the elections against her Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). She had confronted the Taleban extremists head on.
. Ms Bhutto had the political base to conduct a war against extremists. The PPP is the closest the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has ever got to espousing a secular, democratic political culture.
Pakistan is clearly turning into one of the failed states in Asia. The risks of Pakistan imploding have once again increased
1 comment:
This article is very insightful. Is there any hope for Pakistan? What is the solution to the problem? Do you have any thoughts about that ... any recommendations. All the opinions I have read on this subject point to doom. I want to see a solution. Is there any way out for Pakistan? What is the corrective course of actions? Is there anything India or the USA can do?
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