Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Pakistan: Nuclear Assets Control

On 13 Dec 07, just two days before emergency was lifted in Pakistan, President Pervez Musharaff promulgated the NCA Ordinance 2007 in order to perpetuate Army control over nuclear and strategic affairs. The Ordinance will legally ensure that the entire nuclear and missile sector will be outside the control of an elected Prime Minister. The NCA chairman is the President with the PM as the vice-President. The Director General of Strategic Plans Division (SPD) will oversee NCA’s functioning. He will be appointed by the Chairman. Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai is the new civilian Director General of SPD.

In addition to the President and the PM, the NCA will have three ministers (Finance, Defence and Interior), the three service chiefs and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff committee as members. The four elected civilian members will be outnumbered by the President, four service officers in uniform and the director General of SPD. The PM and other civilian ministers are to be excluded from effective control and decision making on nuclear and missile issues. The Ordinance also lays down that the Ministry of Finance shall ensure provision of funds in local and foreign currencies to the NCA through SPD. All employees in strategic organizations are to be considered employees of the NCA.

In 2003, the CIA and British secret service agents intercepted BBC China, the German ship carrying AQ Khan’s consignment of centrifuge equipment and brought into open the sixteen years relationship of proliferation with Iran. The present Ordinance is an effective legal tool of preventing Benazir Bhutto, if she were to become the Prime Minister in Jan 2008, from allowing IAEA access to AQ Khan. Khan’s disclosures are bound to reveal that all Pakistani army chiefs from General Zia Ul Haq to General Pervez Musharaff were party to his proliferation activities.

Pakistan is the only country in the world where the nuclear arsenal is wholly under the control of the military. It is this exclusive control over nuclear assets which emboldened Musharaff to try out his ‘Salami Slicing’ tactics in Kargil in 1999. His hopes of India not taking any counter measures to prevent escalation of the conflict were shattered.

In 1988, the US had mediated a power sharing arrangement in Pakistan that led to the formation of a troika consisting of the President 9Ghulam Ishaq Khan), the Army Chief (Gen Aslam Beg) and the Prime Minister (Bhutto). The Ordinance is Musharaff’s attempt to revive the troika. The US is obviously comfortable with this limited democracy in Pakistan. Two questions, however, remain unanswered. For how long will the army chief and corps commanders put up with the unpopular Musharaff as President and how will the election results turn out if there is no attempt at rigging them? One thing is clear though; Musharaff has altered the Constitution of Pakistan beyond recognition.

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